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07/15/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rory McIlory has gone lower in his career, just not in a major championship.
On Thursday at the British Open, McIlroy matched the lowest round in major championship history with a nine-under 63 to take a two-shot lead after the first round on the Old Course.
McIlroy admitted that the thought crept into his head on No. 17 that he could set or match the low round in a major.
He missed his four-footer for birdie there, but closed with a three-foot birdie putt at the last to post 63.
"I was thinking going up 17, 'What's the lowest score for a major?'" said McIlroy, who closed with a 62 to win this year's Quail Hollow Championship by four strokes over Phil Mickelson.
"I didn't know [the record]. I know there's been a few 63s, but wasn't sure if there were any 62s. That might have crept into my mind a little bit hitting that putt on 17."
South African Louis Oosthuizen, who won the Open de Andalucia earlier this year, fired a seven-under 65 and is alone in second place.
John Daly, the 1995 Open champion at St. Andrews, shares third place with Peter Hanson, Andrew Coltart, Bradley Dredge and Steven Tiley at minus-six. Hanson had the best score for those in the latter part of Thursday's draw.
Three-time Open champion and world No. 1 Tiger Woods posted a five-under 67, carding six birdies and a lone bogey on the 17th. He hasn't played a bogey- free round all year.
Woods is tied for eighth place with 2009 U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover, Sean O'Hair, Lee Westwood, 2009 PGA Championship winner Y.E. Yang and four others.
World No. 2 Phil Mickelson never got anything going on Thursday. The Masters winner's scorecard would have looked better at a different major, the U.S. Open.
Mickelson parred the first 12 holes before stumbling to a double-bogey on the 13th. He parred the next four holes, but at the last, he finally rolled in a birdie putt to end at one-over 73.
"I fought hard today," Mickelson said. "I drove it poorly with the driver, but still salvaged a lot of pars."
McIlroy didn't look like he'd be near the top of the leaderboard at the start of the round.
The 21-year-old from Northern Ireland birdied the third to go with seven pars in his first eight holes. His run up the leaderboard started with an eagle on the par-four ninth.
Around the turn, he poured in three consecutive birdie chances from the 10th to jump to six-under. McIlroy knocked his second shot on the par-five 14th onto the forward tee of No. 15.
He chipped to 10 feet and drained that to take the lead at seven-under. McIlroy knocked in an eight-footer for birdie at the 15th to push his lead to two strokes.
McIlroy parred 16 and 17, where his four-footer for birdie lipped out. At the last, he pitched his third to three feet and knocked that in for a closing birdie.
"I made up for it and made birdie at the last," said McIlory of missing his birdie try on 17 while thinking about matching the low score in a major. "I'm not complaining about my score, but I'm sure it could have been a couple more if a few more putts had fallen."
It was the 24th time a player has posted a 63 in a major championship, but just second time it has happened on the Old Course at St. Andrews.
The only other man to shoot 63 at St. Andrews in the Open Championship was Paul Broadhurst, who did it in the third round in 1990.
Woods had a steady round that started with a birdie on the second. After four pars in a row, he two-putted for birdie on the seventh and moved to three- under with a 22-foot birdie putt at the ninth.
On the back nine, Woods made his run and it started with a two-putt birdie on the 12th. He poured in a 20-footer on 13 and made it three straight with another two-putt birdie at 14.
He was two back at the time, but his deficit doubled late. After McIlroy closed with a birdie, Woods missed a four-foot par putt at 17 to slide four back. That bogey means Woods still hasn't played a bogey-free round all year.
Woods' drive at the last got close enough to the green for him to putt his second. He played a big-breaking putt within seven feet, but missed the birdie try on the left edge.
"I played pretty good today, I just missed two short putts there at 17 and 18," said Woods, who won two of his three Open titles on the Old Course. "It could have been a pretty special round. We had good weather. It felt like we were playing in a dome. The course could be had."
In his three British Open titles, Woods either led or trailed by one stroke after the first round. That wasn't the case when Thursday's opening round finished.
Oosthuizen made back-to-back birdies from the fourth. After a par on six, he ran off four straight birdies from No. 7 to get to six-under.
The South African got within one of McIlroy with birdies on 14 and 15. However, he bogeyed the 17th to slip two back.
"The last three holes were very tough, so I'm happy with my 65," Oosthuizen said. "I think the win earlier in the year on the European Tour made a big change. I feel very confident the way I'm playing."
The other four players tied at minus-five are Fredrik Andersson Hed, Marcel Siem, Nick Watney and Alejandro Canizares.
Defending champion Stewart Cink posted a two-under 70 with three birdies and a bogey. Cink is tied for 46th. The man Cink defeated in a playoff last year at Turnberry, Tom Watson, managed a one-over 73.
Watson bogeyed three straight holes from the second, but birdied the fifth and got another back at the 14th.
NOTES: U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell managed a one-under 71...Reigning British Amateur champion Jin Jeong carded a four-under 68 and is the leading amateur by three strokes over Eric Chun...The Old Course at St. Andrews is hosting the championship for the 28th time...The Open Championship is being played for the 139th time, but is celebrating its 150-year anniversary.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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