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03/07/2010 - Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Vokoun's 31 saves set the tone for Florida's 4-1 victory to snap the Carolina Hurricanes' seven-game win streak at Bank Atlantic Center.
Kamil Kreps scored twice, including an empty-net goal, while Michael Frolik and Cory Stillman picked up the scoring slack in the Panthers' second straight win following a season-long seven-game losing skid.
"We scored seven goals in the game before and were able to get two quick goals in this game," said Frolik. "It's good cause it helps us grab the momentum in the game and carry it through. It was a big win for us."
Jussi Jokinen scored for the Hurricanes, who remain 11-3-0 over their last 14 games. Justin Peters had 26 saves in his fourth start of the season.
"It was a matter of breaks and bounces tonight," said Carolina head coach Paul Maurice. "But I'll tell you what, they (Florida) did as good a job tonight as we've seen in a long time."
Frolik was able to bat in a loose puck at the right side of the net to open the scoring at 13:58 of the first at the conclusion of a Panther power play.
Just 1:11 later Nick Tarnasky set up Kreps for a one-timer in the slot to make it 2-0.
Vokoun's sturdy play between the pipes kept it that way through the first two periods with 16 saves.
Jokinen knocked in a fluttering puck off the rebound of a Brandon Sutter offering to finally break through for Carolina at 7:58 of the third.
Steven Reinprecht snuck out from behind the net a short time later to set up Stillman's one-timer from in close for some breathing room at 3-1 with 3:30 left to play.
Kreps empty-netter sealed it just outside the final minute.
Game Notes
The Hurricanes' streak was their longest since a nine-game tear from March 18- April 7 of last season...They also had a three-game road winning streak broken in the first of three away from Raleigh...Florida will kick off a three-game road trip Tuesday in Minnesota...Florida's Bryan McCabe had three assists.
<< Webb blows away field at ANZ Ladies Masters
Gold Coast, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Karrie Webb, who led by one entering
Sunday's final round of the ANZ Ladies Masters, fired a course-record 11-under
61 to blow away the field for a six-stroke victory.
Webb completed her seventh AN
<< Redskins sign OL Hicks
Ashburn, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Redskins bolstered their
offensive line by signing veteran guard Artis Hicks on Saturday.
The deal is reportedly for three years and worth as much as $9 million.
Hicks has played for
<< Buckeyes top Wisconsin in Big Ten semifinals
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Samantha Prahalis scored 29 points and
went 4-of-7 from three-point range in leading 10th-ranked Ohio State to an
82-73 win over Wisconsin in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament.
Jantel Laven
<< Sharks rally in third to down Blue Jackets
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Evgeni Nabokov made 21 stops, and San Jose
rallied in the third period to take a 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets
at HP Pavilion.
Dany Heatley and Joe Pavelski each had a goal for the Sharks, who h
Spartans can claim share of Big Ten title with win over Wolverines >>
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter Big Ten Conference rivals close out
the regular season against each other this afternoon in East Lansing, as the
Michigan Wolverines come calling on the 11th-ranked Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan
Illinois welcomes No. 15 Wisconsin to Champaign >>
Champaign, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In desperate need of a win, the Illinois
Fighting Illini seek an upset of the 15th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers today in a
Big Ten showdown at Assembly.
At 10-7 within the conference, Illinois is already guarante
Shockers battle Panthers for MVC Tournament crown >>
St. Louis. MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gunning for their second straight Missouri
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Center in St.
SEC showdown pits Gators against Wildcats >>
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats close out
the regular season this afternoon with an SEC clash against the Florida
Gators, who need a victory to help their NCAA Tournament prospects.
Losses in the last two
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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